Methodology

TuddyBuddy estimates the probability that a player scores at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a given game. Every projection combines four families of features:

1. Team environment — implied total, spread, pace, expected touchdowns.
2. Player usage — snap, route, carry and target share with red-zone / inside-10 splits.
3. Player efficiency — EPA, targets per route run, TDs over/under expected.
4. Defensive matchup — positional TD rates, EPA, pressure and injuries.

TuddyScore labels

• 90–100 · Nuclear
• 80–89 · Prime Tuddy Spot
• 70–79 · Strong
• 60–69 · Live
• 50–59 · Neutral
• Below 50 · Tough Path

Market math

Positive American odds convert as 100 / (odds + 100); negative as |odds| / (|odds| + 100). No-vig probability normalizes across all quoted sides. Model edge is the difference between the TuddyBuddy probability and the no-vig market — a positive edge is not a guarantee of value.

TuddyBuddy provides statistical information and probability estimates for research and entertainment. Projections are not guarantees of future performance.