Weekly Trends
Leaderboards across every projection on the board, plus season opportunity baselines and the defenses giving up the most scoring.
Week 1 · Sep 10 – Sep 14, 2026
Tuddy Score hit rate
No games kicked off yet this week
Highest TD probability
Estimated chance of at least one rushing or receiving touchdown.
- 154%
- 251%
- 351%
- 450%
- 550%
- 644%
- 743%
- 843%
- 943%
- 1042%
Model above market
Our probability minus the de-vigged consensus price. Disagreement, not guaranteed value.
- 1+21.3pp
- 2+21.0pp
- 3+20.7pp
- 4+20.5pp
- 5+20.1pp
- 6+19.7pp
- 7+19.5pp
- 8+18.5pp
- 9+18.4pp
- 10+18.0pp
Model below market
Where the book is more confident than we are.
- 1-21.1pp
- 2-17.0pp
- 3-16.5pp
- 4-14.7pp
- 5-13.0pp
- 6-12.4pp
- 7-11.4pp
- 8-10.6pp
- 9-10.6pp
- 10-10.2pp
Biggest rushing-yards edge
Projected rush yards minus the FanDuel line. Positive means our projection is above the line.
Not enough data yet.
Biggest receiving-yards edge
Projected receiving yards minus the FanDuel line, from the WR matchup model.
Not enough data yet.
Biggest receptions edge
Projected receptions minus the FanDuel line, from the WR matchup model.
Not enough data yet.
Top Double alt lines
Alt lines both the player and the defense hit in 100% of games, closest to the FanDuel line first. Historical hit rates, not predictions.
Not enough data yet.
Most inside-10 opportunity
Carries plus targets inside the 10, per game, from season play-by-play.
Not enough data yet.
Highest end-zone target volume
Targets thrown into the end zone, per game.
Not enough data yet.
Scoring below opportunity
Touchdowns minus what their goal-line volume typically returns. Negative suggests positive regression.
Not enough data yet.
Scoring above opportunity
Finishing well above their goal-line volume. Historically hard to sustain.
Not enough data yet.
Defenses allowing the most TDs
Touchdowns conceded per game to the selected positions.
Not enough data yet.
Defenses allowing the most goal-line work
Inside-10 carries plus targets conceded per game.
Not enough data yet.